A key continent, Eurasia, could become a continent of cooperation in the 21 st century. The Eurasian mainland is the longest and most densely populated landmass in the world, which contains key military and economic power centers. Continental powers can address security and development challenges jointly but to do this they need to create a continent-wide transport, energy and communications infrastructure as well as a stable continental security system.
Prospectively, all of this could unite the continent and lead to political stability. But obstacles to this ideal include geopolitical frontiers that exist between countries, expanding unmanageable space, and natural disasters.
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The incentives to settle regional differences and eliminate anarchy zones look bleak in the face of the fact that most Eurasian powers still engage in maritime trade, while underestimating the potential for transcontinental routes and infrastructure construction. In effect, Eurasia today is an archipelago, where the development centers are linked by sea-routes, while land masses constitute insurmountable obstacles.
Schematically, the current international order in Eurasia can be represented as follows. The European peninsula in the West is the most advanced and stable part of the continent, which tends to form a political unity around Germany. The main security threats here are instability spillovers from the south in the form of migration and terrorism and an unsettled geopolitical dispute with Russia. Even though this volcano is settling, there are fragile buffer states between the EU and Russia, a frontier with almost unlimited potential for crises. The first European country to push its borders to the Pacific, Russia continues to ensure land and sea connectivity in Eurasia and is a security donor for the Central Asian and Caucasian states.
The key security threats in northern Eurasia are its internal fragility and the need to maintain geopolitical parity with the United States and the growing power centers along its borders. There is a belt of buffer states to the south of Russia, which is not an arena of confrontation between major power centers.
But in itself, this belt is a regional security and connectivity challenge. The long-standing confrontation in the Middle East between coalitions led by Iran and Saudi Arabia is a geopolitical frontier in its own right. The Israeli factor complicates this confrontation even further as Israel pursues a policy of its own, maintaining a distance from either coalition. The Kurdish factor and the expansion of unmanageable space as a result of popular unrest and the proliferation of terrorist networks make continental spaces in the Middle East almost impenetrable and unfit for economic development.
The persisting border dispute between India and China pushes Beijing to focus on Pakistan in its infrastructure investment program, while purposefully circumventing India. New Delhi is just beginning to contemplate the prospects for the overland transit of its domestic goods, a system that would incentivize regional cooperation and put an end to the dispute with Pakistan. So far, however, both India and Pakistan prioritize maritime trade.
China remains a naval power in terms of trade, on which it depends heavily. This requires the PRC to develop an efficient navy that can keep its trade immune from US interference.
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